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IW 06

Middle East

IRAN: Bush, For another "Regime Change"

 

The US government has finally secured from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) a “condemnation” of Iran before the UN Security Council for “violating” the non-proliferation treaty, which forbids is signers —with the exception of the United States , Great Britain , France , China and Russia— from developing nuclear weapons. Iran 's government has denied any such violation, defending its right to develop nuclear technology and denying any intention of using it for military purposes.

Bush's accusation against Iran has another goal. Iran could, in the best scenario, develop a handful of rudimentary nuclear weapons in a period of five to ten years. How could they help it against the thousands of bombs of the American nuclear arsenal and the hundred of bombs of the Israeli nuclear arsenal? Iran does not constitute, and cannot possibly constitute in the foreseeable future, a “threat” to the United States or to the countries of the region. Any citizen of Iran knows perfectly well that if his or her country were to use nuclear weapons, it be immediately wiped out by the US-Zionist reaction. The only country that could initiate a nuclear war is the United States .

The US problem with Iran is not the nuclear weapons.

Russia was force by the United States to withdraw an offer it had made during the last weeks: to supply Iran with the uranium it needs for the functioning of its nuclear plants for the production of electric energy, as well as to set up a “very small” uranium processing facility, incapable of producing the quantities needed to make a bomb (Financial Times, 7/3).

Bush himself has just signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with India , a country that developed nuclear weapons in opposition to the non-proliferation treaty (some of which are aimed precisely against Iran ). India developed its nuclear weapons with the collaboration of Russia and of the European allies of the US , which want to impede the access of Iran to nuclear technology.

For Bush, the problem is not Iran 's bomb but its government. Iran 's regime not only exerts a decisive influence in occupied Iraq through its Shiite majority, but also in Lebanon through Hezbollah and in Palestine through Hamas. The decomposition in the situation of Iraq , the crisis of Zionism, and the impasse in Palestine have place Iran 's regime in a key position in the Middle East . Imperialism needs in Iran a government bent on the “pacification” of the Middle East ; a “constructive” government, i.e. one that would provide a way out of the crisis for the region in the framework of the imperialist plans. But Iran 's regime has its own “agenda”. In order to force Iran to a compromise in Iraq , in Palestine and in Lebanon , Bush waves the flag of the sanctions, and even of military intervention, with the excuse of the atomic bomb.

Bush's problem is that he lacks the instruments to put effective pressure on Iran . The swamp of the Iraqi occupation makes impossible a military adventure in Iran (whose army has defensive weapons much superior to Saddam's), but he still has the option of carrying out “dissuasive” bombing. An attack would create an oil crisis. The diverging interests of the great powers —Europe, Russia, China—, not only vis-à-vis Iran but also in the whole Middle East, become manifest in the absence of a minimum agreement for the imposition of sanctions, both diplomatic and economic.

By Luis Gurevich