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IW 05

Bolivia

Revolutionaries "on hold" or an Evo Morales in the White House

 

According to Econoticias, Bolivia will be governed, starting on January 22, by an ally of Bush’s, Evo Morales. “Washington seems to be ready to work and collaborate with Evo and the MAS ( Movement to Socialism), hoping for the new Lula of the Andes to be successful and to live a long life.” (http://www.econoticiasbolivia.com/documentos/notadeldia/elec27.html).

But this does not appear to be Bush´s own opinion. Editor Mary Anastasia O´Grady, who usually expresses in blunt terms the points of view of the White House clique, clearly states (The Wall Street Journal, 23/12) ¨Evo Morales’ election as President of Bolivia is more bad news for freedom in Latin America.” The editorialist says that in Bolivia the ones who won were Chavez and even worse, Castro; not Bush. Blinded by Morales, Econoticias does not even see Bush's political collapse.

Nothing has happened here?

According to the site that officiates as spokesman for the abstentionist left (which abstains from participating, not in the elections, but in the whole Bolivian political process) Bush may have changed his strategy, but it does not give any evidence of this at all.

“Bush turned his support towards Morales, abandoning Quiroga,” says Econoticias. The agent on Internet of the most passive and impotent of Bolivian left states that in Bolivia nothing has happened: previously an ally of Bush's was in office; now another governs, so nothing has changed.

Against Econoticias' opinion, we believe that the overwhelming victory of Morales opens a new political stage, after the policies of conciliation and maneuvers have run their course the new stage is a transition towards the victory of a social revolution or the complete regaining of power by imperialism (Prensa Obrera 22/12).

A New Lula”

Econoticias says Morales is “a new Lula”. But if such were the case, first of all he would have to come to the kind of strategic agreement with the imperialisms and with the oil monopolies that Lula committed himself to, which have arranged their own conditions for the exploitation of the Bolivian resources. Certainly, Morales’ program is not revolutionary, but it clashes with the idea of the monopolies of keeping the status-quo. That means a new agreement would press Morales to give up his own nationalist bourgeois program and to confront the popular masses that have voted him into office.

This capitulation would not be enough to turn him into a “new Lula”. Besides, he would have to defeat the masses, making them accept the renunciation of the program for which they have voted. That is what Lula has achieved, but it was due to the fact that previously he had imposed a huge reflux on Brazilians workers.

In short, Morales will do as much as possible to govern as a “new Lula” but to get there he must pass the test of political crisis and class struggle. This is the moment that obliges revolutionaries to have a concrete policy, not just words.

“Combative syndicalism”?

When Evo Morales —using “the same old anti-national and anti-popular policies” shows “his genuine face(…) the rebellion will be reactivated under the direction of “combative syndicalism”, which for the time being “is waiting for the election fever to die down”. Here is everything in a nutshell: Econoticias has placed itself “on hold”.

The leaders of the COB, Federación Minera, etc., frequently talk about “struggles”… but always in the future. In fact, they have been totally incapable of organizing even a single fight for a long time. They admitted in the El Alto Declaration that from May to June they had established “a recess”. And the truce goes on, first it was extended 90 days after the elections and then for another 180 days. At present, a part of those leaders —precisely the local assembly of El Alto, that Econoticias so enthusiastically praises--, have just suspended the “truce”, indefinitely and without conditions.

Econoticias is “on hold”. That is, completely paralyzed. In this sense, they are right when the say that nothing has changed: the “combative” ones were sleeping the “siesta” before the elections, and now they continue to do so.

Global crisis

The political crisis that Bush’s international weakness is bringing about in the United States introduces the developing of a change in Washington political regime. If the crisis deepens instead of a Bush’s allied in the Palace Quemado it is probably we could see one Evo Morales’s allied in the White House

Evo Morales victory has not produced, for the time being, a new ally for Bush. What it has done is to demonstrate the unsuitability of his policy respect to Latin America, which is no longer governed by his allies (Menem, Sanchez de Losada or Quiroga). It has shown the same international weakness as in the Middle East (the failure of the occupation of Irak) and even in the United States.

The political crisis provoked within the United States by Bush's international weakness poses the emergency of a regime change in Washington. If the crisis deepens, rather than an ally of Bush's in the Palacio Quemado... it is probable that we see an ally of Evo Morales in the White House.